European Road Freight Transport 2022

1. FREIGHT RATE DEVELOPMENT IN THE EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET 9 1.1 EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT RATES OUTLOOK 11 2. THE IMPACT OF OIL AND GAS PRICES ON FREIGHT RATES 12 2.1 OIL & GAS: THE PRICING SITUATION 12 2.1.1 Short-term trends and politics 12 2.1.2 Longer-term trends 13 2.2 DEMAND DESTRUCTION? THE IMPACT OF THE COST OF OIL ON ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT  15    2.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR SUPPLY CHAIN ARCHITECTURE   16 3. IMPACT OF THE MOBILITY PACKAGE ON ROAD FREIGHT OPERATIONS 18 3.1 IMPACT OF NEW REGULATIONS  20 3.1.1 Impact on capacity  20 3.1.2 Impact on costs/rates  21 3.1.3 Impact on the environment  23 3.1.4 Impact on modal shift 24 3.2 POTENTIAL OPERATOR RESPONSES   25 3.3 POTENTIAL MARKET RESPONSES  26 3.4 UK TO ADOPT MOBILITY PACKAGE  28 3.5 CONCLUSION  29 4. DRIVER SHORTAGES 30 4.1 OVERVIEW  30 4.2 UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR  32 4.3 DRIVER SHORTAGE IN THE UK   34 5. DIGITALISATION 37 5.1 INTRODUCTION  37 5.2 SURGE OF FUNDING IN DIGITAL FORWARDING START-UPS IN EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT   37 5. 3 THE DIGITAL LANDSCAPE IN THE EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET  39 5.4 PROVIDER PROFILES   40 5.4.1 Chronotruck 40 5.4.2 Coyote Logistics 41 5.4.3 InstaFreight 42 5.4.4 Quicargo  44 5.4.5 sennder 45 5.4.6 Saloodo!  50 6. EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZING 53 6.1 EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT MARKET SIZE & GROWTH   53 6.1.1 European Road Freight Transport Market Size & Growth 2021 53 6.1.2 Total European Road Freight Market 2022 (F)  54 6.1.3 Total European Road Freight Market 2026 (F 55 6.2 MARKET DEVELOPMENT   58 6.2.1 Demand-side contributions to European road freight market growth 58 6.2.1.1 European economic environment  58 6.2.1.2 European Road Freight Vertical Sectors  60 6.2.2 Supply-side constraints to the European road freight market growth  63 6.2.2.1 Cost increases and rates  63 6.2.2.2 Driver shortages  65 6.2.2.3 Mobility Package   66 6.2.2.4 Congestion   66 6.3 TOTAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT MARKET SIZE & GROWTH BY COUNTRY   67 6.3.1 Total European Road Freight Transport Market Size by Country – 2021 67 6.3.2 Total European Road Freight Transport Market Size by Country – 2022 (F) 68 6.3.3 Total European Road Freight Transport Market Size by Country – 2026 (F) 69 6.4 DOMESTIC EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET 2021 (REAL AND NOMINAL)   71 6.4.1 Prices 72 6.4.2 Domestic European Road Freight Market Size by Country 2021  72 6.4.3 Domestic 2022 and 2026 CAGR forecasts 73 6.5. INTERNATIONAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET 2021 (REAL AND NOMINAL) 76 6.5.1 Prices 77 6.5.2 International European Road freight market 2021 By Country  78 6.5.3 International European Road freight market 2022 (Real) + 2026 (Real CAGR) .79 6.6. TOP 20 EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT PROVIDERS 2021   82 7. EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT PROVIDER PROFILES 85 7.1 DACHSER  85 7.1.1 Background  85

7.1.2 Finances  85 7.1.3 Operations 87 7.1.4 Investments  88 7.1.5 Technology  88 7.1.6 Sustainability  89 7.1.7 Strategic Outlook  89 7.2 DB SCHENKER  90 7.2.1 Background     90 7.2.2 Finances  90 7.2.2.1 Europe Land Transport   92 7.2.3 Operations 93 7.2.4 Acquisitions  94 7.2.5 Technology  94 7.2.6 Sustainability     96 7.2.7 Strategic Outlook    96 7.3 DHL  97 7.3.1 Background  97 7.3.2 Finances  98 7.3.2.1 DHL Freight   99 7.3.3 Operations 100 7.3.4 Technology    102 7.3.5 Sustainability  102 7.3.6 Strategic Outlook  104 7.4 DSV PANALPINA  104 7.4.1 Background  104 7.4.2 Finances  105 7.4.3 Operations 108 7.4.4 Investments or Acquisitions 109 7.4.5 Technology  109 7.4.6 Sustainability  110 7.4.7 Strategic Outlook  110 7.5 FEDEX   111 7.5.1 Background  111 7.5.2 Finances    111 7.5.3 Operations 114 7.5.4 Technology  116 7.5.5. Outlook  117 7.6 GEODIS   117 7.6.1 Background  117 7.6.2 Finances  119 7.6.3 Operations   121 7.6.4 Technology  123 7.6.5 Sustainability  124 7.6.6 Outlook  125 7.7 KUEHNE + NAGEL   127 7.7.1 Background    127 7.7.2 Finances  127 7.7.2.1 Revenue distribution by region  128 7.7.3 Operations 130 7.7.5 Technology  132 7.7.6 Sustainability  132 7.7.7 Outlook  133 7.8 LKW WALTER   133 7.8.1 Background  133 7.8.2 Finances  134 7.8.3 Operations 135 7.8.4 Service expansions  136 7.8.5 Technology  137 7.8.6 Sustainability  138 7.8.7 Strategic Outlook  138 7.9 RHENUS LOGISTICS   139 7.9.2 Finances  139 7.9.3 Operations 140 7.9.4 Acquisitions  141 7.9.5 Technology  143 7.9.6 Sustainability  143 7.9.7 Outlook  144 7.10 XPO LOGISTICS EUROPE   145 7.10.1 Background  145 7.10.2 Finances  146 7.10.3 Operations 147 7.10.4 Divestments 149 7.10.5 Technology  149 7.10.6 Sustainability    150 7.10.7 Strategic Outlook  151 ABOUT TI   153 LICENCE AND COPYRIGHT  15

 

 

European Road Freight Market to grow by 4.9% in 2022

Freight market to grow, but analysts warn of unpredictable factors creating uncertainty – including rising cost pressures and the war in Ukraine – in Ti Insight’s latest report: European Road Freight Transport 2022.

• The European road freight market grew 9.4% in real terms in 2021
• The report shows a shortage of 380,000-425,000 truck driver positions (2021 EOY)
• Funding continues to flow into digital forwarding start-ups that operate in the sector

The European Road Freight Transport 2022 Report from Transport Intelligence – the leading provider of market research to the global logistics industry – shows a picture of a strong recovery, with some unpredictable factors creating an uncertain, challenging and complex market environment.

The European Road Freight Transport 2022 –  written by industry researchers, analysts and utilising data from Ti’s GSCi knowledge portal, a data powerhouse with over 1million pieces of data and analysis.

Viki Keckarovska, Ti’s Senior Research Analyst, says: “A strong demand from the retail sector and a rebounding manufacturing sector fuelled the recovery of the European road freight market. However, the market continues to be plagued by several supply and demand-side shocks, which will drag on overall growth, including rising cost pressures, supply and capacity disruptions, regulatory changes, acute driver shortage and the war in Ukraine.”

Report highlights

• The European road freight market grew 9.4% in real terms in 2021 (14.8% nominally) owing largely to Europe’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The market will expand by 4.9% in 2022 and is expected to be 6.3% larger in 2022 than it was in 2019.
• Recovery through to 2026 will remain positive, Ti data shows that the total European road freight market will see a real CAGR of 3.0% from 2021 to 2026.
• European road freight rates hit an all-time high in Q1 2022 as rising cost pressures, supply and capacity disruptions, regulatory change and war in Ukraine created a potent mix of rate drivers.
• Driver shortages remain an acute problem in the European market, with an overall shortage of 380,000-425,000 truck driver positions at the end of 2021.
• Funding continues to flow into digital forwarding start-ups that operate in the European road freight market. Capital flows towards later-stage companies and later-stage rounds, suggesting that later-stage companies will be faced with a more competitive funding environment.

Ti’s latest market forecasts show that the European road freight market will expand by 4.9% in real terms to reach €390,754m. According to Ti’s COVID-19 Recovery Tracker 2022 (CRT22), the European road freight market is expected to reach a CRT22 of 6.3%, representing a full recovery, with an additional 6.3% growth compared to 2019 levels. All European markets are forecasted to recover from the pandemic in 2022, however the major European road freight markets are set to have some of the slowest recoveries. 

Ti’s latest market projections for 2026 show that the European road freight market will reach a real CAGR of 3.0% from 2021 to 2026. The COVID Recovery Tracker for 2026 (CRT26) shows that the region’s total road freight market will be 23.1% larger in 2026 than it was in 2019 in real terms. On the back of solid trade forecasts, the international road freight market is expected to grow faster than domestic during the 5-year period, although it will remain the smaller of the two markets.

Behind this underlying picture of a significant recovery there are a number of factors that are reducing optimism for forecasts, including the length and result of the conflict in Ukraine, the response to increasing inflation, and the rising cost base for road freight services, all of which heavily impact growth in the market.

The effects of inflation on the supply side of the European road freight market, especially on diesel prices, have led to substantial increases in road freight rates. It is reasonable to surmise that smaller road freight providers are likely to suffer disproportionately from the increase in operating costs, whilst larger providers are likely to increase their presence in the market due to their ability to pass on higher fuel prices.

Fuel costs are only one of the challenges currently shaping the road freight market in Europe, and only one factor pushing rates up. The shortage of HGV drivers has long been an issue in the European road freight market and continues to push rates up. At the end of 2021, before the Russia- Ukraine conflict, over 380,000-425,000 truck driver positions were unfilled in Europe according to IRU estimates. Driver shortages are expected to jump by 40% in Europe in 2022, according to the IRU. Despite companies introducing various initiatives to alleviate the problem, including wage increases and funding HGV training, the industry still struggles to attract more professionals.

The full report also analyses the impact of the Mobility Package on European road freight operations and offers in-depth market projections and trade forecasts: an essential tool for business leaders making critical decisions.