Parcel volumes expected to increase to 189bn in 2023

Express parcels

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The Express and Small Parcels 2023 Report from Transport Intelligence – the leading provider of market research to the global logistics industry – shows a picture of normalising activity, as the market shrunk by 0.6% y-o-y in 2022 to a value of €523,080.6m in real terms.

A tentative recovery in demand is to be expected in 2023 following the rapid softening of parcel volumes in 2022. As such, the global express market is expected to grow by 3.6% y-o-y to a value of €542,108m, with global parcel volumes growing by 4.7% y-o-y to 189,120m. Recovery is expected in both the international and domestic markets.

The Express and Small Parcels 2023 Report is written by industry researchers, analysts, and utilising data from Ti’s GSCi knowledge portal, a data powerhouse with over 1 million pieces of data and analysis.

Nia Hudson, Research Analyst at Ti says: “The express and parcels market has passed through an extraordinary three years since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Companies are now in a situation where they have had to implement significant price increases to counter falling volumes, resulting in another unusual market situation where volumes are falling but operators are able to continue increasing revenue. Looking forward, we expect to see a slight recovery in real growth into 2023, although year-on-year growth is expected to be the lowest in almost a decade according to Ti’s data. We should however be careful to paint this figure in too much of a negative light – it may be better to characterise as a normalisation following a period of intense growth.”

Report highlights:

  • The overall global express market shrunk by 0.6% y-o-y in 2022, to a value of €523,080.6m as volumes continued to soften from the pandemic induced B2C peak and the economic bounce back of 2021.
  • Growth was led by Asia Pacific and the MENA region in 2022, the only two regions to exhibit positive growth rates (3.1% and 1.2%, respectively). All other regions saw negative growth throughout 2022.
  • The global express market is expected to show a tentative recovery in demand in 2023, growing by 3.6% y-o-y to a value of €542,108m, following a rapid softening of parcel volumes in 2022.
  • The global express market is expected to grow by a CAGR of 5% over the next five years, reaching a value of €666,428m.
  • Ti’s State of Logistics Express and Small Parcels Survey 2023 reveals that 69% of respondents are currently experiencing increased pressure on margins. Top three key investment focus areas over the next 12 months include route optimisation technology, tracking and visibility technology and alternative delivery network/infrastructure.
  • The integrators continue to dominate the global parcel market. UPS is the market leader in terms of revenues, with €80bn of parcels-related revenue.
  • Revenue growth rates have largely been maintained through price increases, as volumes have (mostly) declined in 2022. For example USPS revenues were up 10% with volume down 5.2%.

The full report – available here – also analyses the competitive landscape in the Express and Small Parcels market and offers in-depth market projections and forecasts: an essential tool for business leaders making critical decisions.

Source: Ti Insights

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