Global Express and Small Parcels

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The Coronavirus pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to the logistics industry. Planes have been grounded; ships have stood still while the growth in e-commerce has arguably catapulted the retail industry into 2030. While other sectors scrambled to assess the decline in volumes and revenue, the express sector bucked the trend of experiencing a bumper year.

Global Express and Small Parcels 2020 contains brand new analysis on the on-demand grocery delivery boom along with a first look at peak season challenges.

The report provides Ti’s proprietary market sizing data showing that express growth has been accelerated by the Covid pandemic, with the market expected to expand by a real 19-24 CAGR of 7.9%. 

This latest report also looks at the changing fortunes of the largest global integrators. 


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This report contains

  • Market sizing – 2019 full year market sizing, 2020 projections and 2019-2024 CAGR forecasts by segment and country.
  • Analysis of the on-demand grocery delivery boom.
  • A look at this year's peak season challenges for retailers and express companies.
  • Comparative reviews of the global integrators.

This report contains

  • Market sizing – 2019 full year market sizing, 2020 projections and 2019-2024 CAGR forecasts by segment and country.
  • Analysis of the on-demand grocery delivery boom.
  • A look at this year's peak season challenges for retailers and express companies.
  • Comparative reviews of the global integrators.

Exclusive Highlights

  • Express growth has been accelerated by the Covid pandemic, with the market expected to expand by a real 19-24 CAGR of 7.9%
  • Both Emerging Markets and Developed Economies are projected to show strong growth over the course of the year and over the forecast horizon.
  • Domestic growth has accelerated this year, with lockdown-induced e-commerce growth a key feature over H1 and this trend is expected to continue throughout the rest of 2020.
  • International growth has accelerated too, with growth over the full year expected to exceed H1 growth, as a result of manufacturing supply chains re-starting post-lockdown and cross-border e-commerce.
  • Whilst the trade war weakened the integrator’s financials in 2019, cross-border e-commerce was a leading light.
  • Integrator international express volumes boomed in Q3-20, with an economic bounce back, tight air freight capacity and higher cross-border e-commerce sales contributing to growth.
  • Margins have also recovered well, with increased volumes leading to network efficiency gains.

Exclusive Highlights

  • Peak season 2020 is expected to be record-breaking. In anticipation retailers are trying to spread demand over several weeks by launching promotions earlier than they have previously.
  • Alternative delivery solutions are becoming more critical as consumer behaviour changes
  • Retailers are likely to experience shortages of in-demand products and an influx of products previously forecasted to be the “big hit” in 2020.
  • Logistics technology is playing a big part in the On-Demand Grocery sector. Software has played a key role at Ocado, leading to automation of fulfilment centres. However, Covid has accelerated the development of niche hardware too, such as robotics and drones.
  • Logistics technology companies appear more likely to benefit from growth in the sector compared to last mile delivery companies.
  • On-Demand grocery delivery is increasingly offered alongside consumer goods delivery, benefitting the likes of Alibaba, Amazon and Walmart.
  • This boom is being experienced across geographies, from more underdeveloped markets in the likes of India, to more mature online shopping markets such as the UK.
 

Prof John Manners-Bell is Chief Executive of Ti, Honorary Visiting Professor at the London Metropolitan University’s Guildhall Faculty of Business and Law and an adviser to the World Economic Forum. He has over 25 years’ experience working in and analysing the global logistics sector.

 

 
 

 

Beth Poole is a researcher at Ti. She graduated from Cardiff University with a degree in Criminology and Sociology and a Masters in Social Science Research Methods. Both degrees provided her with a good knowledge and experience in both primary and secondary research which she now applies to her role at Ti. Beth enjoys analysing new trends in logistics and researching the emergence of new technologies. As part of her role as researcher Beth contributes to Logistics Briefing and Ti’s Global Supply Chain intelligence portal.

 

 

 

Andy Ralls is a quantitative analyst at Ti. He graduated from the University of Southampton with a Mathematics with Finance degree in 2014. In his studies, he chose a final year project on actuarial modelling and forecasting and enjoyed modules on statistical distribution theory, financial mathematics and macroeconomics.

 

 

 

Holly Stewart joined Ti as a researcher in 2018. Whilst at university she gained much experience in both primary and secondary research, as well as enhancing her analytical and evaluation skills. Studying History developed Holly’s interest in politics and geopolitics. After graduating, Since working at Ti, she has worked on and gained interest in emerging markets logistics and peak season. As part of her role as a researcher Holly contributes to logistics briefings and GSCi, in particular, provider profiles, countries and regions.

 

 

Caterina Ciccone joined Ti in 2019 as a researcher. She studied English and Spanish Modern Languages in Italy where she developed a passion for research. After graduating Caterina studied teaching education at Bath Spa University. She has since then worked as a sales administrator using her Italian and Spanish language skills to support customers and as a researcher in the operational risk field. Caterina is passionate about learning about logistics companies and their strategies and contributes to Logistics Briefing and Ti’s Global Supply Chain intelligence portal.

 

 

 

Table of Contents

1.0 Peak Season and Covid-19. 6

1.1 Overview.. 6

1.2 Christmas Arrives Early. 8

1.3 Capacity Issues. 9

1.4 Alternative Delivery Methods. 10

1.5 Importance of Social Media. 11

1.6 Returns. 12

1.7 China. 13

1.8 Europe. 14

1.9 North America. 16

1.10 As 2020 comes to a close. 16

 

2.0 On-Demand Grocery Delivery Boom.. 18

2.1 Introduction. 18

2.2 On-Demand Bounces Back from Lockdown. 19

2.3 On-Demand Platforms Partner with Grocery Retailers. 20

Case Study: Ocado. 20

Case Study: Deliveroo partners with Co-op and Morrison’s in UK. 22

2.4 Are there opportunities for parcels companies in On-Demand?. 22

Case Study: Express Operator Remains Exception in On-Demand Market 23

2.5 Covid Impetus to Last Mile Delivery Automation. 23

2.5.1 On-Demand Robot Delivery. 23

2.5.2 Drones: Wing and Walgreens. 24

2.6 Conclusion. 25

2.7 Global Markets. 25

2.7.1 China. 25

2.7.2 US. 27

2.7.3 India. 29

2.7.4 United Kingdom.. 30

 

3.0 Global Express and Small Parcels Market Size, Growth and Forecasts. 33

3.1 Global Express and Parcels Market Size & Growth. 33

3.2 Asia Pacific. 40

3.4 Europe. 43

3.5 Middle East & North Africa. 48

3.6 North America. 50

3.7 Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia. 53

3.8 South America. 55

3.9 Sub-Saharan Africa. 58

 

4.0 Providers. 60

4.1 Integrators - Comparative Review of 2019. 60

4.1.1 International Express Provider Comparison. 61

4.1.2 EBIT Margin Comparison. 62

4.1.3 Volume Growth Comparison. 63

4.2 Integrator – 2020 Performance. 64

4.2.1 Integrator Volumes. 67

4.2.2 Revenue per piece. 69

4.2.3 Vertical sectors boosting e-commerce volumes. 69

4.3 Asia Pacific. 71

4.3.1 Chinese Provider Comparisons. 72

4.3.2 Chinese Provider Profiles. 73

4.3.3 Asia Pacific Ex-China Providers. 77

4.3.4 Asia Pacific Ex-China Provider Profiles. 79

4.4 Europe. 83

4.4.1 Europe Provider Comparisons. 84

4.4.2 Europe Provider Profiles. 87

4.5 North America. 93

4.5.1 North America Company Comparisons. 94

4.5.2 North America Provider Profiles. 97

4.5.3 Amazon Disrupting the Express Market 100

 

Table of Figures

 

Figure 1.1 Since the outbreak of Covid-19, I am shopping often online than before. 7

Figure 1.2 Change in online shopping demographics since Covid-19 are expected to continue. 7

Figure 2.1 US Online Grocery Market Customers by Company. 28

Figure 2.2 Online Grocery Market Size and Forecast in India (in $bn) 29

Figure 2.3 Online Grocery Market Size in UK (in £bn) 31

Figure 2.4 UK Online Food Store Sales as a percentage of All Food Store Sales. 32

Figure 3.1 Total Express and Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 33

Figure 3.2 Domestic Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 34

Figure 3.3 International Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 34

Figure 3.4 Total Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 36

Figure 3.5 Total Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 36

Figure 3.6 Express & Small Parcels: Domestic Market Size by Region (% to Total) (2019) 37

Figure 3.7 Express & Small Parcels: Domestic Market Size by Region (% to Total) (2024) 37

Figure 3.8 Express & Small Parcels: International Market Size by Region (% to Total) (2019) 38

Figure 3.9 Express & Small Parcels: International Market Size by Region (% to Total) (2024) 38

Figure 3.10 Express & Small Parcels: Domestic & International Market Size Split (% to Total) (2019) 39

Figure 3.11 Express & Small Parcels: Domestic & International Market Size Split (% to Total) (2024) 39

Figure 3.12 Asia Pacific Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 40

Figure 3.13 Asia Pacific Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 42

Figure 3.14 Asia Pacific Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 43

Figure 3.15 Europe Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 44

Figure 3.16 Europe Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 47

Figure 3.17 Europe Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 47

Figure 3.18 Middle East and North Africa Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 48

Figure 3.19 Middle East and North Africa Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 49

Figure 3.20 Middle East and North Africa Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 50

Figure 3.21 North America Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 51

Figure 3.22 North America Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 52

Figure 3.23 North America Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 53

Figure 3.24 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 54

Figure 3.25 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 55

Figure 3.26 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 55

Figure 3.27 South America Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 56

Figure 3.28 South America Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 57

Figure 3.29 South America Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 57

Figure 3.30 Sub-Saharan Africa Express and Small Parcels Market Size and Growth. 58

Figure 3.31 Sub-Saharan Africa Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2019) 59

Figure 3.32 Sub-Saharan Africa Express & Small Parcels: Total Market Size by Country (% to Total) (2024) 59

Figure 4.1 International Express Provider Revenues 2019 (€m) 62

Figure 4.2 International Express Provider EBIT Margins. 63

Figure 4.3 International Express Provider Volume Growth. 64

Figure 4.4 Integrator Revenue Change Year-on-Year from 2019 to 2020. 65

Figure 4.5 Integrator Volumes from 2018 to 2020. 67

Figure 4.6 Integrator Volume change year-on-year from 2019 to 2020. 68

Figure 4.7 Integrator Revenue per Piece from 2018 to 2020. 69

Figure 4.8 China’s Express Delivery Market Share by Company. 72

Figure 4.9 ZTO Revenues (€m) 75

Figure 4.10 ZTO Parcel Volumes (m) 75

Figure 4.11 Asia Pacific Ex-China Express Providers April-September H1-20 Revenue. 78

Figure 4.12 Asia Pacific Ex-China Express Providers H1-20 revenue % change compared to H1-19. 79

Figure 4.13 Japan Post Network. 80

Figure 4.14 Yamato Asia Pacific Network. 82

Figure 4.15 European Express and Last Mile Revenues 2019. 84

Figure 4.16 2019 Annual Express Volumes. 84

Figure 4.17 European Provider Investments. 85

Figure 4.18 European Express and Small Parcel Providers Additional Employees. 86

Figure 4.19 Increase of Collection Point Usage in Europe 2020. 86

Figure 4.20 European Express and Small Parcel Providers Available Pickup Points. 87

Figure 4.21 DPD European Network. 88

Figure 4.22 Hermes European Coverage. 89

Figure 4.23 GLS European Network. 90

Figure 4.24 GLS COVID-19 Volatility – Parcel Volumes Change Year-on-Year 91

Figure 4.25 DHL Express European Coverage. 92

Figure 4.26 US Express and Parcel Revenues ($m) 94

Figure 4.27 North America Express and Parcel Volumes (000s) 95

Figure 4.28 Additional Staff Hired throughout 2020. 96

Figure 4.29 On-time delivery performance. 96

17th December, 2020, Bath, UK – Ti’s new report Global Express & Small Parcels 2020 shows that the market has achieved accelerated growth where all other logistics markets have contracted in 2020.

  • Express growth has been accelerated by the Covid pandemic, with the market expected to expand by a real terms 19-24 CAGR of 7.9%
  • Both Emerging Markets and Developed Economies are projected to show strong growth over the course of the year and over the forecast horizon.
  • Domestic growth has accelerated this year, with lockdown-induced e-commerce growth a key feature over H1 and this trend is expected to continue throughout the rest of 2020.
  • International growth has accelerated too, with growth over the full year expected to exceed H1 growth, as a result of manufacturing supply chains re-starting post-lockdown and cross-border e-commerce
  • Asia Pacific maintains the strongest 5-year growth potential, with the market expected to grow at double digit percentage rates over this time frame.
  • The US market is projected to grow by 12.5% over 2020.

Over the course of 2020 the integrators have benefitted greatly from this surging growth, especially through Q3 as the economic bounce back took hold and many shippers resorted to using express networks because of tight air freight capacity. The surge in volumes moving through express networks through Q3 has helped push up revenues, with DHL reporting a 14.6% y-o-y increase and UPS showing a 15.5% y-o-y increase in Q3. Margins have also held up strongly with the volume and revenue rises.

Express providers have seen particularly strong growth in their international business and Ti’s latest report expects growth in cross border e-commerce to continue drive that expansion through to 2024 and beyond.

In domestic markets, B2C e-commerce and on-demand delivery services have also seen a surge as consumer behaviour shifts faster than ever with Covid-19. This has driven a strong growth for the integrators but also a host of new technology start-ups which have been able to use their technology to leverage new flexible employment and delivery models. Ti’s new report provides insights into the new opportunities in on-demand and grocery delivery, showing how these trends may benefit the likes of Alibaba, Amazon and Walmart, rather than the traditional last mile players.

Andy Ralls, a quantitative analyst at Ti said: “Global express has seen accelerated growth amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Whilst consumers will return to shops more in the years ahead, elevated levels of e-commerce sales are here to stay, which is good news for B2C parcel deliveries, both on a domestic and international basis.”

With surging cross-border and domestic e-commerce, alongside the rise of on-demand and grocery delivery, peak season 2020 is expected to be record-breaking. In anticipation retailers are trying to spread demand over several weeks by launching promotions earlier than they have previously. Alternative delivery solutions are becoming more critical as consumer behaviour changes. Retailers are likely to experience shortages of in-demand products and an influx of products previously forecasted to be the “big hit” in 2020. Returns policies carry a heavier weight this peak season. Both logistics providers and retailers will need to strategize to ensure a quick turnaround of returns to ensure profit margins are maintained as much as possible.

Ti’s latest report, Global Express & Small Parcels 2020, offers full analysis of the express & small parcels market: https://www.ti-insight.com/product/global-express-small-parcels/

About Transport Intelligence (Ti)

Transport Intelligence (Ti) is one of the world’s leading providers of expert research and analysis dedicated to the global logistics industry. Utilising the expertise of professionals with many years of experience in the express, road freight and logistics industries, Transport Intelligence has developed a range of market-leading web-based products, reports, profiles and services used by many of the world’s leading logistics suppliers, consultancies, banks and users of logistics services.

For further information, please contact Michael Clover, Ti’s Head of Commercial Development, [email protected]

This report is perfect for

  • Global manufacturers
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  • Supply chain managers and directors
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