Global Express and Small Parcels

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The global express and small parcels market continues to be driven forward by e-commerce but there are challenges on the horizon in the shape of slowing global economies, lower international trade growth and cross-border reform. Global Express and Small Parcels 2019 examines these challenges whilst assessing the opportunities for growth within alternative delivery networks, cross-border B2C e-commerce.

The report also contains Ti’s in-house market sizing, with both 5-year CAGR and 2019 full year estimates. There are also in-depth case studies of alternative delivery networks, including Amazon, Alibaba and JD.com’s locker networks and analysis of how changes to foreign market access might impact on low cost e-retailers.

Finally the report looks at the express market in regional terms – reviewing regional market structure and competitive landscape.

 

This report contains

  • Market sizing – 2018 full year market sizing and 2018-2023 CAGR forecast.
  • Case studies of alternative delivery networks and automotive opportunities.
  • Analysis of automotive express supply chains.
  • Assessment of cross-border e-commerce challenges and looks at the potential impacts of upcoming postal reform on express carriers, postal operators and customs authorities.
  • Comparative review of major express players, including market activity by region.

This report contains

  • Market sizing – 2018 full year market sizing and 2018-2023 CAGR forecast.
  • Case studies of alternative delivery networks and automotive opportunities.
  • Analysis of automotive express supply chains.
  • Assessment of cross-border e-commerce challenges and looks at the potential impacts of upcoming postal reform on express carriers, postal operators and customs authorities.
  • Comparative review of major express players, including market activity by region.

Exclusive Highlights

  • The global express and small parcels market grew 8.5% in 2018, representing a slowdown from 2017.
  • In 2019, Ti expects market growth to slow further and projects an expansion in real terms of 8.1%.
  • Asia Pacific's extraordinary growth rates are leading global growth by some margin.
  • Development of alternative delivery solutions has strategic implications in the trade-off between inventory management and product availability. 
  • The automotive aftermarket represents a huge opportunity for LSPs, but only if they can compete with tech capabilities and e-retail opportunities.
  • Recent agreements may ease some cross-border concerns but issues remain.

Key Questions the report asks and answers

  • How large was the global express and small parcels market in 2018, and how has that developed into 2019?
  • What are the express opportunities in the automotive sector and what must providers do to compete?
  • Alternative delivery solutions - what are the strategic implications and benefits?
  • What impact will postal reform have on cross-border e-commerce, and will LSPs stand to benefit?
  • What are the growth prospects for domestic and international express over the next 5 years?
  • What, and where are opportunities for growth within the express market? 
 

Prof John Manners-Bell is Chief Executive of Ti, Honorary Visiting Professor at the London Metropolitan University’s Guildhall Faculty of Business and Law and an adviser to the World Economic Forum. He has over 25 years’ experience working in and analysing the global logistics sector.

 

 
 

 

Beth Poole is a researcher at Ti. She graduated from Cardiff University with a degree in Criminology and Sociology and a Masters in Social Science Research Methods. Both degrees provided her with a good knowledge and experience in both primary and secondary research which she now applies to her role at Ti. Beth enjoys analysing new trends in logistics and researching the emergence of new technologies. As part of her role as researcher Beth contributes to Logistics Briefing and Ti’s Global Supply Chain intelligence portal.

 

 

 

Andy Ralls is a quantitative analyst at Ti. He graduated from the University of Southampton with a Mathematics with Finance degree in 2014. In his studies, he chose a final year project on actuarial modelling and forecasting and enjoyed modules on statistical distribution theory, financial mathematics and macroeconomics.

 

 

 

Holly Stewart joined Ti as a researcher in 2018. Whilst at university she gained much experience in both primary and secondary research, as well as enhancing her analytical and evaluation skills. Studying History developed Holly’s interest in politics and geopolitics. After graduating, Since working at Ti, she has worked on and gained interest in emerging markets logistics and peak season. As part of her role as a researcher Holly contributes to logistics briefings and GSCi, in particular, provider profiles, countries and regions.

 

 

Caterina Ciccone joined Ti in 2019 as a researcher. She studied English and Spanish Modern Languages in Italy where she developed a passion for research. After graduating Caterina studied teaching education at Bath Spa University. She has since then worked as a sales administrator using her Italian and Spanish language skills to support customers and as a researcher in the operational risk field. Caterina is passionate about learning about logistics companies and their strategies and contributes to Logistics Briefing and Ti’s Global Supply Chain intelligence portal.

 

 

 

Table of Figures. 4

1.0 KEY FINDINGS.. 7

2.0 THE GLOBAL EXPRESS & SMALL PARCELS MARKET. 9

2.1 Alternative Delivery Networks. 9

2.1.1 Trends in emerging and developed markets. 9

2.1.2 Consumer expectations for alternative delivery methods. 10

2.1.3 Case Studies for alternative delivery networks. 11

2.1.4 Cost Implications of Alternative Delivery Networks. 22

3.0 EXPRESS & SMALL PARCELS – CASE STUDY: AUTOMOTIVE OPPORTUNITIES.. 23

3.1. Automotive aftermarket 23

4.0 CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE: ISSUES OF UNFAIR SUBSIDY, EVASION AND COUNTERFEITING   28

5.0 GLOBAL EXPRESS & SMALL PARCELS MARKET SIZE & FORECAST. 35

5.1 Global Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 35

5.2 Asia Pacific Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 43

5.3 Europe Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 47

5.4 Middle East & North Africa Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 50

5.5 North America Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 53

5.6 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 56

5.7 South America Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 58

5.8 Sub-Saharan Africa Express & Small Parcels Market Size & Growth. 61

6.0 MAJOR EXPRESS PLAYERS.. 64

6.1 Comparative Review of The Year 64

6.2. Asia Pacific. 68

6.2.1 Chinese Ecosystem.. 68

6.2.2 Asia Pacific - Company Comparisons. 69

6.2.3 Asia Pacific Provider Profiles. 70

6.3 Europe. 90

6.3.1 Europe – Company Comparisons. 91

6.3.2 Europe Provider Profiles. 93

6.4 Middle East 104

6.4.1 Middle East Company Comparisons. 104

6.4.2 Middle East Provider Profiles. 107

6.5 North America. 115

6.5.1 North America Company Comparisons. 116

6.5.2 North America Provider Profiles. 125

6.6 South America. 135

6.6.1 South America Company Comparisons. 136

6.6.2 South America Provider Profiles. 142

 

Global express and small parcels market driven forwards by e-commerce but challenges threaten a gloomier horizon

  • The global express and small parcels market grew to a value of €2bn in 2018. Domestic growth of 8.8% outpaced international growth of 6.9%.
  • The mechanisms which have facilitated the boom in global cross-border e-commerce are increasingly being called into question. Access to foreign markets for low cost manufacturers and retailers may change as a result.
  • Alternative delivery networks are rapidly gaining popularity amongst consumers for the convenience they offer. Such networks have strategic implications for new ‘online-to-offline’ retail models, while their environmental benefits are unclear

October 1st, London, UK – New research from logistics and supply chain consultancy Transport Intelligence (Ti) finds that the global parcels market grew to a value of €306.2bn in 2018 as domestic market growth of 8.8% outpaced international growth of 6.9%. e-commerce continued to be a key driver in both the domestic and international markets.

As clouds gather – not least the expectation of a slowing global economy and lower international trade growth – the global express and small parcels market is expected to hold up reasonably well. Ti expects market growth to slow in 2019, with the international market slowing most significantly with a forecast expansion of 5.5%. Uncertainty in the global economic environment is also weighing down growth over the medium-term, with Ti forecasting a real 2018-2023 CAGR of 7.8%.

“The growth rates for 2018 show a steady decline from 2017, which was a bumper year for the global economy,” said Andy Ralls, Quantitative Analyst at Ti. “Into 2019, we expect the market to slow further, as macroeconomic conditions have clearly worsened. Nonetheless, there are significant bright spots for the express market, not least in e-commerce. Despite conditions softening, the unique market conditions in China means it once again stands out as a major driver of global growth.”

Cross-border Challenges

Allied to the threat of economic uncertainty in the global express and small parcels market are questions over international trading relationships. The effects of the move towards deglobalisation on the market are unclear, but more specific questions over the mechanisms which have facilitated the boom in cross-border e-commerce being raised. Recent agreements may ease some worries, but other issues remain, including those around competition the movement of counterfeit goods into Western markets.

Alternative Delivery Networks

The rapid growth in online sales volumes has forced a rethink of the B2C last mile delivery model. With home delivery expensive for retailers and parcels companies, inconvenient for shoppers and a headache for administrators and regulators concerned about congestion and pollution, many companies involved in the e-retail sector are looking for alternative delivery solutions.

Ti’s Global Express & Small Parcels 2019 report finds that the development of alternative delivery solutions has strategic implications in the trade-off between inventory management and product availability as many retailers are converging their online and offline offering into an ‘online-to-offline’ (O2O) approach to combine the benefits of open-all-hours e-retail with a physical presence, close and convenient to the customer. Moreover, while such networks should bring environmental benefits, the location of the boxes and the operating environment (rural, semi-rural, suburban, inner-city) are the critical factors in the efficiency and sustainability of alternative delivery systems.

This report is perfect for

  • Global manufacturers
  • Banks and financial institutions
  • Supply chain managers and directors
  • Logistics procurement managers
  • Marketing managers
  • Knowledge managers
  • Investors
  • All C-level executives

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