The Ti Dashboard tracks the weekly diesel prices with tax in the five major European economies including Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain. Looking at the dashboard, it is possible to see that between September 6, 2021, and September 27, 2021, diesel prices have increased by 2.3% in Germany; by 2.8% in France; by 1.3% in both Italy and the UK, and by 1.6% in Spain.
The rise in prices within the tracked European countries occurs in an international context of rise in oil prices. Brent, the benchmark barrel in Europe, has seen cost increase to 9.5%, reaching over $80 (€68.5) per barrel from the beginning of September 2021 and until the 28th of the month. When compared with September 2020, its price has doubled due to stronger international demand further to the easing of restrictions and recovery of activity and travelling after the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to analysts, globally prices are nearing their intermediate top level of $86 (€73.6) per barrel, around which some cooling off is expected even though the broader trend remains rising.
Germany experienced the highest year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in fuel cost (%) when comparing the last week of September 2020 with the last week of September 2021, of 38.5% to €1.44 (2020: €1.04).
When comparing the week commencing September 28, 2020, and the week commencing September 27, 2021, France’s diesel prices have increased by 23.5% year-on-year to €1.47 in 2021 (2020: €1.19). As reported by Le Parisien, the French government declared that it is not worried, since the main reason for the increase is that prices are returning to pre-COVID levels. That is true to an extent, as diesel prices are returning to January 2020 levels in France. On the other hand, petrol prices during the summer reached levels not seen in France since May 2019. Diesel overall remains cheaper in France than in the UK, where a litre is about €1.62 as of September 27, 2021, while petrol prices in the two countries are very similar.
Amongst the five major European countries, Italy experienced the least y-o-y increase in diesel cost (%) in the last week of September 2021, showing an increase of 20.6% to €1.52 (2020: €1.26). With the new prices, a full tank would cost up to €12 more when compared to the beginning of 2021, with an expected average of €324 extra spend per family per year to run their vehicle, according to The Local. Since the end of September 2021, the country has also been battling with the increase in methane gas, in addition to petrol.
In the UK, diesel rose by 26.6% y-o-y to €1.62 (2020: €1.28) in the last week of September 2021. This took the cost of filling a 55-litre tank (the average amount to refuel a medium-size car) to £76.59 (€89.1) for diesel vehicles – a rough increase of £12 (€14) since the beginning of 2021. The British automotive service company RAC quoted the increase in oil price by almost 10.0% in the month of September 2021 as the cause, rather than the driver shortage.
Out of the five major European economies, Spain remains the country with lowest diesel prices since, despite VAT increases, higher taxes, and levies on biodiesel, it continues to have a lower tax burden than the average EU community. Its diesel prices rose by 25.2% y-o-y in the last week of September 2021 to €1.29 (2020: €1.03). Overall, the current prices imply that in Spain filling a tank of 55 litres would cost around €11 more than at the beginning of 2021.
Source: Transport Intelligence, October 11, 2021
Author: Caterina Ciccone
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GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN INTELLIGENCE (GSCi)