Contract logistics growth expected to slow in 2023

After a decade of growth, the global contract logistics market contracted by 3.3% in 2020, as a strong H2 prevented worse outcomes.

In 2023, Ti’s latest interim data projections indicate that the contract logistics market is expected to grow at a slighter slower pace than in 2022 as the economy enters a pronounced slowdown and market moderation seen in the second half of 2022 spills over into 2023. The market is projected to grow by 3.1% y-o-y and is expected to reach a value of €253,706.3m.

Slowdowns will be more pronounced in Europe and North America, which are expected to see much weaker growth below the global average. North America is expected to grow by 2% y-o-y, whilst Europe is expected to grow by just 0.6% in 2023. The market will be driven by the Asia Pacific region (5.7% y-o-y), which is expected see strong GDP, manufacturing, and retail industry growth in the coming year. As described by the IMF in its October 2022 update, “Asia remains a [relatively] bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy”. 

Contract Logistics Market Growth by Region 2023 (f)

North America, Asia Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the only three regions expected to grow at a quicker pace in 2023 than in 2022. Strong growth in retail and manufacturing is expected to offset lower GDP growth in North America through 2023. Asia Pacific meanwhile expects to see slightly stronger GDP growth in 2023, as well as strong retail and manufacturing growth. All other regions, including Europe, are expected to grow at a slower pace year-on-year.

2023 will be a story of significantly reduced growth for most European countries in the contract logistics market. The European market is forecast to reach €74,091.4 in 2023, with a projected slowing growth rate of 0.6%, as economic conditions continue to tighten. 


Some major economies in Europe will see contract logistics market growth slow to less than 1% in 2023, and others will experience slowing growth from previously quite high rates.  Whilst there are conflicting forecasts about retail growth in 2023, manufacturing in the UK is expected to decline in 2023. For Europe, the region’s real GDP growth is expected to decline markedly from 1.9% to 0.3% in 2023 according to the IMF.

Looking forward, the market is expected to grow at a 2021-2026 CAGR of 3.7%, reaching a value of €286,066.3 as the economy continues to grapple with an economic slowdown and inflation. 

Five-year forecasts are increasingly uncertain and will depend on the outcome of various unpredictable factors. The length and outcome of the war in Ukraine, as well as the response to increasing inflation and a slowing global economy are likely to impact growth in the market. 

For more in-depth information, download the Global Contract Logistics Market Size & Forecasting 2023 Whitepaper, which contains 2023 forecast growth data with analysis of international and domestic projections. The paper also analyses the various economic headwinds impacting the market in the year ahead, including the energy crisis, rising inflation, manufacturing downturn and driver shortages.

Supply chain strategists can use GSCi – Ti’s online data platform – to identify opportunities for growth, support strategic decisions, help them stay abreast of industry trends and development, as well as understand future impacts on the industry. 

Visit GSCI subscription to sign up today or contact: Michael Clover for a free demonstration: [email protected] | +44 (0) 1666 519907 

Source: Transport Intelligence, 8th December 2022

Author: Transport Intelligence