Following CMA CGM’s announcement that it will purchase fellow container line NOL, now is a good time to take stock of the global box shipping industry.
According to data from industry tracker Alphaliner, the merger will see CMA CGM’s market share rise from 8.8% to 11.4%. The ranking of the top 10 players is not disturbed – CMA CGM was the third largest liner by operational capacity prior to the acquisition and will remain so following completion of the deal. However there will now be a far larger gap between the market leaders and the chasing pack – CMA CGM will become almost two-and-a-half times larger than 4th ranked Hapag-Lloyd.
Source: Transport Intelligence, using Alphaliner data
It would be interesting to compare this chart with one that forecasts how the market will look at some point in the future.
And to some extent, this is possible. Firstly, data is available on firm orders that shipping lines have made. At present, MSC has almost 600,000 TEUs of vessel capacity on the books, followed by Maersk and Evergreen (around 400,000 TEUs), while CMA CGM (post acquisition) is scheduled to take delivery of almost 300,000 TEUs.
Source: Transport Intelligence, using Alphaliner data
One could also factor in the potential merger of China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) and China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO). If this proceeds, an entity with a market share of 7.6% would be created, putting daylight between itself and the chasing pack but still some way behind the market leaders.
Yet to forecast market share here is actually exceedingly difficult. Shipping lines are still adjusting to the new set of rules they are faced with – not only have oil prices crashed this year, demand projections are regularly being altered. Moreover, it is the nature of the sector that vessels can be idled and orderbooks are fluid.
In a recent interview, Maersk Line’s CEO Soren Skou commented: “I think we are standing in front of a new wave of consolidation for the first time in 10 years because the market is very weak.”
Indeed, this simple assertion is the forecast that many are confidently making – more consolidation is coming.
Note: Graphs and figures are taken from Ti’s Dashboard. To find out more about this product or to purchase a 12 month subscription (priced £795) please follow the link provided- http://www.transportintelligence.com/dashboard
