There was little month-to-month change as the November Stifel Logistics Confidence Index increased only 0.1 points to 59.0. Compared to November 2013, the overall index is up 1.9 points however, this is down from the October year-over-year increase of 3.8 points as noted in last month’s analysis. Is this an indication of an economic slowdown or is it simply due to the time of year?
Present situation
The present situation sub-index suggests it could be related to an economic slowdown. For air freight, November 2013 data indicates strong gains were made. The air freight present situation sub-index increased 2.8 points to 50.9 and all lanes except US to Europe noted good increases. In comparison, for November 2014, the air freight present situation sub-index increased 0.7 points to 54.1. Asia to Europe and Europe to US lanes remained strong as they did for November 2013, increasing 4.5 and 1.4 points to 63.4 and 47.5. However, the Europe to Asia lane declined 1.3 points for November 2014 but increased 5.3 points for November 2013 while the US to Europe lane remained problematic for both time periods.
Meanwhile, sea freight declined 1.2 points to 56.5 with all lanes declining. Similar to air freight, November 2013 indicates positive gains for all lanes except the US to Europe lane which declined for both time periods.
Present situation
6-month expected situation
The outlook appears to be mixed and thus could further indicate a possible economic slowing. The sub-index for air freight notes only a 0.1 point rise to 59.7 in November 2014. Compared to November 2013, this sub-index increased 0.4 points to 61.6. The Asia to Europe lane recorded the biggest decline for November 2014 at 1.9 points. Ironically, this same lane recorded the biggest gain for November 2013 at 1.6 points. Meanwhile, the Europe to US lane increased the greatest for November 2014, 3.0 points but, again, for November 2013, it had the biggest decline for November 2013 of 2.0 points to 57.1 points.
It’s a bit more promising for sea freight. For November 2014, the sub-index increased 0.8 points to 65.5 as opposed to a slight decline of 0.1 points to 62.0 for November 2013. Similar patterns are emerging as those in November 2013 when lanes were mixed with declines in both the US lanes. In comparison, November 2014 noted improving conditions for the Europe to US lane but declines for the US to Europe lane still.
Expected situation
Monthly industry question
Survey participants were asked if they expected an air freight peak for the fourth quarter. A majority, 51.5%, did indicate they expected one while 36.4% indicated no peak for air freight and 12.1% of the participants were unsure.
Of those that were expecting a peak season for air freight, the majority of participants, 50.8%, expect the duration to last 3-4 weeks, whereas 25.4% expect it last longer than 4 weeks and 23.9% expect the air freight peak season to last less than 3 weeks.
To take part in the latest Stifel Logistics Confidence Index Survey:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/M3MT76B
To download the full ‘Stifel Logistics Confidence Index – November 2014 document please use the following link:
