DHL has devised an early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade.
Its new Global Trade Barometer, produced in partnership with Accenture and published quarterly, is based on large amounts of logistics data.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer is based on import and export data for a number of intermediate and early-cycle commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production, e.g. brand labels for clothes, bumpers for cars or touch screens for mobile devices.
Sources for the index are aggregated market data from air and containerized ocean freight in seven countries, which account for more than 75% of world trade. Using artificial intelligence and various statistical methods, this data is compressed to a single index value, which is published on a global level and individually for the seven countries evaluated.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer index represents the weighted average of the current growth and the upcoming two months of global trade. An index value above 50 indicates a positive development; values below 50 point to a decline in world trade. Tests with historical data have revealed a high correlation between the DHL Global Trade Barometer and real containerized trade, providing a three-month forward-looking estimate.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer for January 2018 indicates that global trade will continue to grow within the next three months. On its initial release, the index scored 64, which is slightly below the values calculated for previous months. That means that world trade is still considered to be in an expansive mode, but growth loses momentum. The decline is due to weakening prospects for Chinese and Japanese trade, which is only partially offset by improved prospects for India, South Korea and Great Britain
Source: Deutsche Post DHL Group
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